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2007 Demographic Study
A District 41 demographic study conducted by University of North Carolina demographer Dr. John Kasarda explains the reasons for continued enrollment growth and provides projections for three scenarios: The lowest enrollment that could possibly be anticipated (Series A), the most likely enrollment (Series B), and the highest enrollment that could possibly be anticipated (Series C). The study provides a reader-friendly explanation of the forces and history that impact enrollment trends. It also states that the projections are based on the best information available at this time, and should be monitored and regularly updated. On page 31 of the report, Kasarda states:
“My analysis of recent birth data for the District 41 area, trends in kindergarten enrollments, housing turnover, and student migration/transfer patterns lead me to forecast continuing District enrollment growth to nearly 3,800 students in 2016-17. During the next five years, Churchill should remain fairly stable, while Lincoln and Franklin will grow modestly. Forest Glen and Hadley Junior High will expand a bit more over the coming five years with Hadley expected to grow even more strongly after 2011-2012.”
The historical enrollment data used in the Kasarda report comes from the Fall Housing Report (meaning the number of students housed in D41 schools), which is the enrollment figure public schools report to the state and that is published in the School Report Cards. D41’s 2006 Fall Housing enrollment was 3588. Kasarda notes that estimates out to 2011-2012 can be made with more confidence than those out to 2016-2017, since beyond 2012, the children are not yet born. He also notes that the district has experienced significant fluctuations in kindergarten enrollment in recent years.
Enrollment from the 2006 Fall Housing report |
Projections |
Series A
Lowest possible |
Series B
Most likely |
Series C
Highest possible |
3588 students |
To 2011-2012 |
3423 |
3714 |
3930 |
3588 students |
To 2016-2017 |
3405 |
3778 |
4010 |
» Please click here for the complete report
» See the 2005 NIU Demographic Study Update 11/05 |
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